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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's protracted campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to host the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the oil producers that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit hindered from the top if his government managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and achieve an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.