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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and military drones past outlying Japan's territory as China escalates strains following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.