Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.